Ageing population: What you should know about Morocco’s demographic shift

Morocco, like many nations worldwide, is experiencing a significant demographic transition characterized by an ageing population, declining birth rates, and notable social and economic implications. The latest census data reveals that the country’s population has surpassed 37 million, with the average household size decreasing from 4.6 to 3.9 individuals between 2014 and 2024.

One of the most striking developments is the transformation of Morocco’s population structure, which has profoundly altered the demographic pyramid.

Growing ageing population

Recent census data indicates a reduction in the proportion of Moroccans under the age of 15, which has decreased from 28.2% in 2014 to 26.5% in 2024. Similarly, the working-age population, those aged between 15 and 59 years, has also declined, dropping from 62.4% to 59.7%.

Conversely, the senior population, defined as individuals aged 60 and over, has seen a marked increase from 9.4% in 2014 to 13.8% in 2024. This translates to approximately 5 million seniors, up from 3.2 million a decade earlier, reflecting an annual growth rate of 4.6%—significantly outpacing the overall population growth of 0.85%.

Notably, 58.8% of Morocco’s elderly population is under the age of 70, while those aged 70 to 79 account for 28.3%. Individuals aged 80 and above constitute 12.9% of the population, a figure projected to rise to 23.2% by 2050, equating to about 10 million people.

Gender disparities within the ageing demographic are evident, with approximately 2.3 million elderly women in 2022—100,000 more than men in the same age bracket. Experts anticipate this gap will widen, predicting that by 2050, the number of elderly women will reach 5.4 million, approximately 770,000 more than their male counterparts. This trend can be attributed to the higher life expectancy of women compared to men.

Government statistics attribute these demographic shifts to various social and economic changes, including the integration of women into the workforce, which has exerted new pressures on the traditional family model.

The implications of an ageing population are significant. Reports from the International Monetary Fund indicate that wealthier nations with ageing populations may experience a slowdown in GDP growth and increased pressure on government budgets. The IMF's 2017 report emphasized that an ageing population can hinder economic growth, as a larger share of the budget is allocated to health and retirement programs for the elderly.

This demographic shift compounds existing challenges, such as high youth unemployment and socio-economic inequalities. Recent statistics from the High Commission for Planning (HCP) reveal that the national unemployment rate has risen to 13.6%, with rural areas experiencing an increase from 7% to 7.4%, while urban unemployment remains steady at 17%.

The challenges extend beyond employment. The ageing population is also confronted with inadequate healthcare services, a shortage of medical professionals, and insufficiently equipped facilities, raising urgent questions about the country's capacity to care for its growing elderly demographic.

One challenge piling onto another

A recent report from the Economic, Social, and Environmental Council (CESE) highlights that one in four Moroccans lacks medical insurance. In response to this pressing issue, His Majesty King Mohammed VI has called on the government to implement a universal social security system to benefit all segments of Moroccan society.

In line with this directive, the government has made commitments to enhance social protection for workers and vulnerable populations. In January, the House of Representatives introduced legislation to reform the social security system, specifically the National Social Security Fund (CNSS), to manage social protection programs and address rising debt concerns.

However, media reports and official statements indicate that long-standing challenges in the health sector persist, particularly concerning the elderly. In 2015, the Global AgeWatch Index ranked Morocco 84th out of 96 countries based on various indicators of the well-being of individuals over 60.

Another pressing socio-economic challenge is emigration. Many young Moroccans are leaving the country in search of better opportunities. This exodus raises concerns about who will care for the ageing population left behind. A recent Afrobarometer survey revealed that over 25% of Moroccans have considered emigration.

The declining fertility rate and increasing mortality rate further complicate the situation. In 2024, Morocco's fertility rate was 2.28, reflecting a 0.8% decrease compared to the previous year. Issues of maternal and infant mortality remain high, particularly in rural areas, despite government efforts to address these disparities.

Health Minister Amine Tahraoui has noted significant progress, citing a 70% reduction in the natural mortality rate over the past two decades. The maternal mortality rate has also seen improvement, dropping from 244 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2000 to 72 by 2020.