Venezuela Election Favours Maduro amid Opposition Boycott

Venezuelans are heading to the polls this Sunday to elect governors and deputies in a vote widely expected to solidify President Nicolás Maduro’s hold on power. With the majority of the opposition opting to boycott the election ten months after disputing Maduro’s re-election his government is anticipated to win by a large margin.

Over 400,000 security personnel will be deployed for the vote, which runs from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. local time, with results expected later that evening.

The campaign has already been marred by the arrest of opposition figure Juan Pablo Guanipa, an ally of María Corina Machado, who has urged Venezuelans not to participate. Authorities accuse Guanipa of being part of a “terrorist network” aimed at disrupting the election. His detention has drawn international criticism, notably from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who called it “unjustified and arbitrary.”

The government, which frequently claims to be the target of conspiracies, suspended all flights from Colombia on May 19, alleging that mercenaries were attempting to sabotage the vote.

A particularly contentious element of the election involves representatives for the Essequibo region a territory administered by Guyana but claimed by Venezuela. Caracas is pushing to elect a governor and eight deputies for the area, reigniting a colonial-era territorial dispute. Guyanese President Irfaan Ali labeled the move a “threat,” though voting will only occur on the Venezuelan side of the border.

Maduro’s ruling PSUV party, founded by the late Hugo Chávez, currently controls 19 out of Venezuela’s 23 states and holds 253 of 277 seats in the National Assembly. Polls predict that the ruling party will once again secure a commanding majority. Analysts suggest the opposition has realistic chances in only two states: oil-rich Zulia and Nueva Esparta, home to Margarita Island.

“The majority of the opposition is staying home, which plays into the government’s hands. The political map will turn solid red on May 25,” said Jesús Castillo, head of the Polianalítica think tank, referencing the symbolic color of the ruling party.

Both the ruling party and the opposition have conducted low-profile campaigns. Maduro has emphasized the breadth of participation, highlighting 54 political parties and over 6,500 candidates, and predicts a “crushing victory.”

Machado, meanwhile, has condemned the vote as a “massive farce designed to bury the regime’s July 28 presidential defeat,” urging supporters to leave polling stations empty as a form of protest.

The opposition remains divided over whether to participate, still claiming victory in the 2024 presidential election, which it alleges was rigged. Post-election unrest left 28 dead and led to 2,400 arrests, of which 1,900 have since been released.

Henrique Capriles, a two-time presidential candidate, has encouraged a faction of the opposition to vote. “Voting is a tool for change and resistance,” said Juan Requesens, a candidate for governor in Miranda state, which includes part of Caracas. “I understand the frustration, but the struggle is long and difficult  we must fight.”