Germany's political crossroads: Migration and identity shape crucial 2025 election

As Germany approaches a pivotal election in 2025, the nation grapples with significant challenges that are reshaping its political landscape. With a population nearing 85 million, Germany has become the third-largest refugee-hosting country globally and the largest in the European Union, hosting 3.5 million refugees and asylum seekers, including one million from Ukraine.

The country's changing demographics and economic pressures have sparked intense political debate. Following Syria's decade-long war, Germany accepted 850,000 Syrian refugees, a decision marked by former Chancellor Angela Merkel's famous statement "Wir schaffen das" (We can do this). However, this policy later became controversial as public opinion shifted and economic conditions deteriorated.

Recent economic challenges have intensified political tensions. Germany's economy has contracted for two consecutive years, with 68% of citizens expressing fears about an extended downturn. The automotive sector, traditionally a cornerstone of German industry, faces significant layoffs as Chinese consumers increasingly favor domestic luxury vehicles over established German brands.

These circumstances have benefited the right-wing Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party, particularly in former East Germany. A recent controversy erupted when CDU party leader Friedrich Merz, the frontrunner for chancellor, accepted AfD support for migration legislation in the Bundestag, drawing criticism from former Chancellor Merkel. The legislation ultimately failed after several CDU members withdrew their support.

The CDU's campaign slogan, "A Germany we can be proud of again," reflects the party's shift. Merz, known for being "more Atlanticist than European" due to his experience with BlackRock, might align with potential Trump administration priorities on issues ranging from migration to national identity.

Despite current challenges, Germany maintains strong international engagement. The country has pledged €4 billion for Africa's green energy and hydrogen initiatives through 2030 and established its first permanent foreign army base in Lithuania following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Germany also remains attractive to potential migrants, ranking third in preference among young adults from the MENA region, according to a 2023 Arab Youth Survey.

The upcoming election could dramatically reshape Germany's approach to taxation, energy, migration, and security policies. The results will depend largely on voter frustration levels and confidence in candidates' ability to address pressing challenges. As Germany confronts these domestic and international pressures, the nation stands at a historical turning point reminiscent of 1989, with its national identity and foreign policy priorities in flux.