German elections: far-right surge and Trump’s influence reshape political landscape

Germany’s federal elections on Sunday, February 23, marked a pivotal moment in the nation’s political history, as voters turned out in large numbers amid a campaign dominated by a far-right surge and the disruptive influence of Donald Trump’s return to the global stage.

Friedrich Merz, the conservative frontrunner and leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), has pledged a significant rightward shift to reclaim voters from the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is expected to achieve a historic result. Merz is widely anticipated to succeed Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), given the conservatives’ commanding lead in opinion polls. Promising to restore Germany’s global stature, Merz has positioned himself as the candidate of change in a time of mounting instability.

Speaking to voters in Berlin, Daniel Hofmann, a 62-year-old urban planner, described his decision to vote as a “civic duty” during a period of deep uncertainty. “There must be a change, a transformation,” he insisted. Over 59 million Germans were eligible to vote, with initial exit poll results expected shortly after the 6 pm (1700 GMT) closing of polling stations.

The election comes against the backdrop of a strained transatlantic relationship, with Trump’s direct outreach to Russian President Vladimir Putin unsettling NATO allies and raising questions about the alliance’s future. Germany, which has long depended on the US-led security framework, faces growing pressure as Europe’s largest economy grapples with a recession and geopolitical uncertainty.

At his final campaign rally in Munich, Merz expressed confidence in his party’s victory, declaring, “We will win the elections and then the nightmare of this government will be over.” Addressing a packed beer hall, he emphasized the need for Europe to assert itself on the world stage, urging for a stronger role in global affairs.

Far-right gains and Trump’s shadow

The AfD, traditionally strongest in Germany’s ex-communist eastern regions, has capitalized on increasing dissatisfaction with mainstream parties. The party has also enjoyed vocal support from Trump’s allies, with billionaire Elon Musk endorsing it as the only party capable of “saving Germany.” This endorsement, combined with a series of high-profile attacks involving asylum seekers, has bolstered the AfD’s appeal to disaffected voters.

A series of violent incidents has fueled the far-right narrative. In December, a car-ramming attack at a Christmas market claimed six lives and injured hundreds, with a Saudi national arrested at the scene. Additional attacks—one targeting kindergarten children and another involving a car-ramming incident in Munich—were both attributed to Afghan asylum seekers. On Friday, a Syrian man was arrested at Berlin’s Holocaust memorial after allegedly stabbing a Spanish tourist in an antisemitic attack.

These events have heightened fears among voters like Janine Wirmer, a 32-year-old project manager from Frankfurt. “I am afraid that the AfD will become strong,” she said while casting her vote, holding her young child. For Wirmer, key concerns include climate protection and the uncertain geopolitical landscape, particularly in light of Trump’s influence on US-Europe relations.

A turning point for mainstream parties

Merz has warned that the next government must address the concerns driving support toward the AfD, cautioning that failure to do so could result in an even stronger far-right victory in the future. Political analyst Michael Broening echoed this sentiment, describing the election as a “last chance” for Germany’s mainstream parties to reclaim their footing. “Germany’s establishment parties have consistently failed to convince voters to reject the far right,” Broening said, adding that failure to deliver meaningful solutions on issues like immigration, economic stagnation, and voter disillusionment could lead to a dramatic reshaping of the political landscape.

The stakes are high not only for Germany but for its place on the global stage. A potential trade war sparked by Trump could further damage Germany’s struggling economy, which is already facing recession. Trump, known for his criticism of Germany’s trade and defense policies, offered a dismissive comment when asked about the election: “I wish them luck, we got our own problems.”

As Chancellor Scholz prepares to stay on as caretaker until a new coalition government is formed, Merz has expressed confidence that his party can achieve this task by Easter. For Germany, the election marks a critical juncture, with its political future—and its role in Europe—hanging in the balance.