Algeria and the Moroccan Sahara: A futile advance deepening military junta's isolation

Algeria continues to maintain its façade as an impartial observer in the Moroccan Sahara issue, despite its relentless diplomatic maneuvers aimed at undermining Morocco. This duplicity exposes the hypocrisy of its military regime, which finds itself ensnared in contradictions, isolation, and a series of international setbacks.

While Algeria claims not to be directly involved in the artificial conflict over the Moroccan Sahara, it is heavily invested in supporting the Polisario mercenaries. This substantial financial, military, and diplomatic commitment starkly contradicts its official statements, revealing an unhealthy obsession with Morocco.

The military regime has refused to engage in UN-organized roundtable discussions, instead insisting on direct negotiations with the Polisario, thereby attempting to impose a biased narrative on the conflict.

The current geopolitical landscape does not favor Algeria. Since the United States recognized Morocco's sovereignty over its Sahara in 2020, Algeria has faced a string of diplomatic defeats. Spain labeled Morocco's autonomy plan as a "serious and credible" solution in 2022, followed by France in 2024 and several other European nations. Algeria's isolation became evident when its recall of ambassadors from Madrid and Paris failed to change these countries' positions.

Additionally, its election to a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council has not bolstered its diplomatic standing; Algeria's proposals have been consistently rejected, even by Russia, a long-time ally that has declined to support its attempts to expand the MINURSO mandate.

Algeria is also losing ground in Africa. Since Morocco's return to the African Union in 2017, recognition of the self-proclaimed republic has dwindled. Numerous African nations have established consulates in Laâyoune and Dakhla, affirming their acknowledgment of Morocco's sovereignty over its Sahara.

Unable to halt this trend, Algeria is desperately trying to reorganize a Maghreb Union without Morocco—a project that struggles to gain traction beyond a weakened Tunisia and a divided Libya.

In light of its diplomatic impotence, Algeria and the Polisario have attempted to escalate military tensions. Since November 2020, the Polisario forces have threatened a return to "war," a provocation that has failed to resonate internationally. Struggling to actualize a military escalation, the Polisario remains trapped in a dichotomy between aggressive rhetoric and a stagnant military reality. Algeria, on the other hand, cannot afford a direct conflict with Morocco without facing a substantial retaliatory response.

The potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency in 2025 could further isolate Algeria, reinforcing American support for Morocco's position. Meanwhile, Morocco continues to advance diplomatically, economically, and militarily, solidifying its role as a key player in Africa and the Middle East.

Algeria, trapped in outdated rhetoric and obsolete strategies, is increasingly weakening on the international stage. Its fixation on the Moroccan Sahara as a national obsession only amplifies its failures, leaving it bewildered in the face of a reality that slips further from its grasp.