Strategic energy shifts and global power struggles

Miguel Golmayo, a naval captain and expert in both energy and military intelligence, has released his second book La fiebre del oro verde: geopolítica de las energías renovables (The Green Gold Rush: Geopolitics of Renewable Energy), following the success of his first work on hydrocarbons. As Spain’s Defense Advisor to the OSCE, Golmayo offers a compelling analysis of the hidden geopolitical forces behind the global push for renewable energy and warns that this shift could create a new kind of dependency this time on strategic minerals.

In an interview with 20minutos, Golmayo explains that the concept of an "energy transition" is misleading. According to him, humanity has never truly replaced one energy source with another. New sources are simply added to the energy mix, while older ones remain. For instance, although renewable energy is on the rise, it primarily affects electricity generation, which represents only 20% of total energy consumption in Spain. The nation still relies on fossil fuels for around 74% of its energy, a pattern consistent worldwide, where dependence on fossil fuels remains at about 80%.

Golmayo criticizes the European Union’s energy policies, which aim to achieve independence through renewables while neglecting nuclear energy a crucial and stable source. He warns that Europe’s current strategy could weaken its industrial and agricultural sectors. In contrast, countries like the United States and Norway can afford to sideline nuclear power due to their domestic oil production. Europe, with limited resources, lacks this luxury.

The war in Ukraine has prompted Europe to reduce its dependence on Russian energy, accelerating investments in renewables. However, Golmayo notes that solar panels and wind turbines rely heavily on minerals and technologies sourced primarily from China, making European energy independence a complex illusion. In his view, unless Europe gains control over critical mineral resources, its renewable ambitions will only shift its dependence from oil to Chinese-controlled minerals.

China, he adds, has strategically positioned itself as the global leader in renewable technology and mineral control. Their energy policies are state-driven and economically efficient, ensuring cheap electricity and self-reliance not out of ecological commitment but as a strategic necessity.

Golmayo concludes by drawing parallels between past conflicts over oil and current geopolitical tensions around renewable energy resources. He suggests that figures like Donald Trump are aware of the mineral wealth in regions such as Ukraine and Greenland not for environmental reasons but for access to critical resources like rare earth elements. In his view, the new global power struggle revolves not around fossil fuels, but around who controls the raw materials that will fuel the green energy revolution.