Pistachio shortage: How Dubai's chocolate has disrupted the market

A viral video has dramatically altered the global pistachio market. The now-famous "Dubai chocolate," launched in 2021 by the Emirati brand FIX, has become a coveted product worldwide following a stunning feature on TikTok at the end of 2023. Since then, demand has surged, prices have skyrocketed, and a serious pistachio shortage threatens the chocolate industry.

The phenomenon began with a clip posted by influencer Maria Vehera, who tasted the renowned pistachio cream-filled bar for her followers. The result: over 120 million views and an instantaneous global craze. This frenzy triggered a rush for the product, causing a brutal imbalance in the supply chain of an ingredient already under strain.

Consequences quickly followed. According to Giles Hacking, a dried fruit trading expert at CG Hacking, pistachio prices soared from $7.65 to $10.30 per pound in just one year. This increase is attributed to a poor harvest in the United States—the world's leading producer—and an unexpected demand propelled by social media. The pistachios, less abundant but of higher quality, have primarily been sold whole, exacerbating the scarcity of pistachio nuts intended for chocolate bars.

In response to this unprecedented tension, Iranian producers have increased their exports to the Emirates by 40% in six months. However, this has not been enough to stem the crisis. In California, some producers are even replacing their almond trees with pistachio trees, with the first fruits not expected until 2026—a solution too late to meet current fervor.

Major chocolate brands have not hesitated to follow the trend. Lindt, Läderach, and Lidl have all launched their own versions of pistachio chocolate. Yet, most struggle to meet the demand. "No one was prepared for this," admits Charles Jandreau, managing director of the Prestat group, which owns several British premium chocolate brands.

In some stores, chocolate bars are now rationed to attempt an equitable response to the influx of consumers. This surge illustrates both the viral power of social media and the fragility of global agricultural supply chains. A simple digital craze has transformed a niche product into a nearly unattainable commodity.