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AfD expected to gain ground in key North Rhine-Westphalia elections
Germany’s far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is projected to make strong advances in local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, the country’s most populous state. The vote marks the first major electoral test for Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who took office just four months ago.
Home to nearly a quarter of Germany’s population, North Rhine-Westphalia is often seen as a political barometer. Final surveys suggest Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) remains ahead with about 35% of the vote. However, the AfD is polling at roughly 16%—two to three times its previous result—potentially giving its candidates a strong chance of reaching second-round votes for mayoralties.
The election comes amid economic difficulties, rising unemployment, and heated debates on immigration, an issue central to the AfD’s platform. Merz has vowed to revive the economy, tighten migration policies, and curb the far right’s rise.
The outcome is being closely watched nationwide, with analysts warning that AfD gains in local politics could undermine mainstream parties’ commitment to a “firewall” against collaborating with the far right at the federal level. Meanwhile, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), a junior coalition partner, faces a steep battle for survival in former industrial regions where it once enjoyed strong dominance.