Algeria's political maneuvering amid Morocco's Sahara momentum

Political tensions between Morocco and Algeria have taken an unusual twist following the mysterious disappearance of Melania Trump’s bronze statue from Sevnica, Slovenia, during Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune’s official visit. This incident has ignited speculation and intrigue, drawing attention to the broader implications for diplomatic relations in North Africa.

Tourists visiting Sevnica were greeted by an empty pedestal where the statue once proudly stood, with local media reporting that it had been severed from its base. Slovenian authorities have since launched an investigation into the statue’s sudden vanishing act, coinciding with President Tebboune's trip, which was purportedly focused on economic cooperation.

Algerian political analyst Oualid Kebir emphasized the significance of this curious event, suggesting that it was no mere coincidence. He posited that Algerian intelligence may have orchestrated the theft as part of a strategic plan aimed at countering former President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Morocco’s claims to Sahara. Kebir described the incident as a calculated move designed to create a diplomatic opening, possibly leading to the statue’s return accompanied by fanfare to win favor with the Trump family.

According to Kebir, the second phase of this alleged scheme would likely involve a dramatic announcement from Algeria’s state television, claiming that security services had recovered the statue from international art thieves. This tactic, he noted, mirrors historical attempts by Algeria to influence foreign leaders through personal connections, recalling past strategies used during François Mitterrand’s presidency in the 1980s.

Kebir asserted that the visit was not merely about discussing gas or formal agreements; rather, it was an elaborate façade for what he termed a “secret bronze operation.” He argued that Algeria’s efforts to engage with the American administration through Melania Trump reflects a longstanding, albeit outdated, strategy.

The Sahara dispute remains a contentious issue between Morocco and Algeria, with Trump’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the territory in December 2020 still resonating in diplomatic circles. Kebir pointed out that Algeria's attempts to reverse this recognition have been largely unsuccessful, noting Morocco’s effective use of parallel diplomacy to secure international support.

Morocco has increasingly adopted a proactive stance regarding Sahara, garnering greater international endorsement for its sovereignty over the region. The country has focused on redefining its alliances and emphasizing the Autonomy Plan Initiative as a viable solution to the long-standing conflict. This strategic pivot has involved significant investments in development within its southern provinces, enhancing Morocco’s diplomatic credibility.

As Morocco deepens its partnerships across Africa, the Arab world, and the West, it has seen tangible support, including the establishment of consulates in Laayoune and Dakhla. In contrast, Algeria's entrenched hostility toward Morocco's territorial integrity has led to a stagnation of its diplomatic efforts, clinging to outdated ideological frameworks that no longer resonate with the international community.

This ongoing rivalry has been further exacerbated by Algeria’s refusal to acknowledge Morocco’s historical ties to the Sahara and its rejection of integration initiatives. The recent friction between Algeria and France, following the latter’s acknowledgment of Morocco’s sovereignty, highlights the deepening divide between the two nations.

As tensions escalate, observers lament the missed opportunities for cooperation that could benefit both countries and the broader region. However, the momentum currently favors Morocco, whose blend of pragmatic diplomacy, institutional reforms, and developmental initiatives in the Sahara has solidified its claims and positioned it favorably on the international stage.