Australia's Birth Rate Reaches Historic Low, Raising Economic Concerns

In a significant demographic shift, Australia recorded 286,998 births in 2023, resulting in a total fertility rate (TFR) of just 1.50 babies per woman, according to the latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). This marks a decline from the previous year’s TFR of 1.63 and continues a troubling trend observed over the past three decades.

Beidar Cho, head of demography statistics at ABS, noted that this unprecedented low fertility rate is attributed to reduced birth numbers across most states and territories. Western Australia reported the highest TFR at 1.57, followed closely by New South Wales and the Northern Territory at 1.55. Conversely, the Australian Capital Territory experienced the lowest rate at 1.31.

Interestingly, Tasmania was the only state to see an increase in its TFR, rising from 1.49 to 1.51 babies per woman. Among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander mothers, the TFR was notably higher at 2.17, with these births constituting 8.6% of all registered births.

The data reveals a stark decline in fertility rates among younger women, particularly those aged 15 to 19, where rates have plummeted by more than two-thirds over the last thirty years. In contrast, older mothers are increasingly having children; the fertility rate for women aged 40 to 44 has nearly doubled during this period.

Cho emphasized that these trends reflect a societal shift towards later childbearing, with the median age of mothers now at 31.9 years. This change is contributing to a significant drop in Australia’s overall fertility rate.

Demographers express concern that Australia’s current TFR is below the replacement level of approximately 2.1 babies per woman needed to maintain population stability without immigration. Liz Allen from the Australian National University warned that reaching such low fertility levels could lead to long-term economic consequences, as fewer births may hinder future economic growth.

Urban economist Terry Rawnsley echoed these concerns, drawing parallels with countries like South Korea and Italy that have experienced similar demographic challenges after falling below a TFR of 1.5. He stressed the urgency for policymakers to address this critical issue before it becomes entrenched.

As Australia faces this demographic crossroads, experts suggest that improving access to affordable childcare and addressing economic insecurities could help reverse this declining trend in birth rates. The path forward will require concerted efforts from both government and society to create an environment conducive to family growth and stability.