Canada Faces Crucial Vote Amid Rising Tensions With Trump

On the eve of Canada's legislative elections, candidates are intensifying their campaigns, as the country grapples with unprecedented threats from U.S. President Donald Trump. In a climate of anxiety since Trump's return to the White House, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party is favored to win Monday’s vote a remarkable turnaround.

Just months ago, the path seemed clear for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre to reclaim power after a decade under Justin Trudeau. However, Trump's aggressive stance towards Canada, including tariffs and annexation threats, has reshaped the political landscape.

Mark Carney, a 60-year-old former central banker with no prior electoral experience, consistently warns that the U.S. poses a real threat. "They want our resources, our water, our country," he emphasized. Campaigning near Toronto on Saturday, Carney criticized his Conservative opponent for lacking a plan to confront Trump or to strengthen Canada's economy. "President Trump has fractured the global economy and betrayed Canada," he declared at a rally in Mississauga.

Carney stressed the need for calm and maturity, rather than chaos and anger, positioning himself as the steady choice in uncertain times.

Meanwhile, Poilievre appealed to voters by promising tax and spending cuts, urging them to reject the Liberals. Campaigning in British Columbia and Ontario, he addressed struggling families, promising change and hope.

Against this tense backdrop, Canadians view the election as historic. Over 7 million voters cast their ballots early during the Easter weekend, out of nearly 29 million eligible voters.

For many, including Montreal resident Nathalie Tremblay, the stakes feel higher due to the strained U.S.-Canada relationship. She expressed hope for a "strong government." Conversely, entrepreneur Simon-Pierre Lépine warned against another decade of Liberal rule, criticizing their financial mismanagement.

Polls show the Liberals leading with 42.5% support, followed by the Conservatives at 38.7%, with the New Democratic Party, Bloc Québécois, and Greens trailing.

According to political scientist Daniel Béland, the Liberals have successfully positioned Mark Carney as the right leader to face U.S. challenges. Despite opposition efforts to shift campaign debates towards domestic issues like the cost of living, they have struggled to change the narrative. Analyst Tim Powers notes that while surprises can still occur, time is running out.