China’s balancing act: Peacemaking in Ukraine vs. trade priorities

For the past three years, China has presented itself as a potential mediator in the Ukraine conflict, engaging in diplomatic efforts across various nations, proposing peace initiatives, and even suggesting the deployment of peacekeepers. However, when key Russian and U.S. officials met in Saudi Arabia recently, Chinese President Xi Jinping was notably absent, instead prioritizing economic recovery and trade negotiations with the U.S. President Donald Trump to prevent another trade war.

China's cautious approach to peace efforts reflects its unwillingness to jeopardize its strong ties with Moscow, which supplies it with essential energy resources. Foreign Minister Wang Yi underscored this dependence at the Munich Security Conference, highlighting that China cannot afford to disrupt its massive imports of Russian gas. This reluctance to exert economic pressure on Russia has allowed Beijing to focus on trade, directing officials to study Trump’s policies and adjust its diplomatic tone to maintain negotiation channels.

Meanwhile, Trump’s unexpected direct engagement with Russian President Vladimir Putin, excluding Ukraine and European stakeholders, has sparked concerns in Europe. Wang has advocated for broader participation in peace talks, yet European leaders remain critical of China’s indirect support for Russia through energy purchases. Analysts suggest that China’s engagement with Europe is driven by a desire to secure a role in postwar reconstruction rather than a fundamental shift in policy.

Despite recent diplomatic outreach to European officials, China has not made significant concessions on trade or its stance on Russia. Observers believe that Beijing sees Europe as too economically vulnerable to demand major compromises, focusing instead on preparing for potential new tariffs from Trump. Ultimately, China’s strategy remains one of calculated engagement—balancing economic self-interest with its global ambitions as a diplomatic power.