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Could Spain face a tsunami? Experts assess the risks
A history of tsunamis in Spain
The possibility of a tsunami hitting Spain may seem far-fetched, but history tells a different story. One of the most devastating events occurred in November 1755, when an earthquake between 8.7 and 9.0 on the Richter scale struck Lisbon. The quake triggered a tsunami that reached five meters in height and impacted the coasts of Spain and Morocco.
In Cádiz, the waves reportedly surged up to 18 meters, breaching city walls and causing flooding as far as Puerto de Santa María and Tarifa. Towns in Huelva, such as Ayamonte and Lepe, also experienced catastrophic damage.
The Mediterranean has seen its share of tsunamis as well. While Spain has been less affected, a 2003 earthquake in northern Algeria generated two-meter waves that reached the Balearic Islands.
Future risks for Spain
Experts believe the threat of a tsunami in Spain is higher than many might assume. In 2022, the Intergovernmental Ocean Commission predicted a 100% probability of a tsunami exceeding one meter in the Mediterranean over the next 30 years, based on a study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research.
Two regions in Spain are particularly at risk:
Atlantic coast: The Averroes marine fault, located off Andalusia’s coast, could theoretically generate six-meter waves that might reach land within 30 minutes. Studies suggest a 10% chance of a one-meter tsunami hitting Huelva or Cádiz in the next 50 years, with a 3% chance of three-meter waves.
Alborán Sea and southeastern Spain: Identified as one of the most seismically active areas in the Mediterranean, this region has the potential to generate significant tsunamis. Coasts from Valencia to Málaga, including the Balearic Islands, are among the most at risk.
Emilio Carreño, director of the National Seismic Network, has highlighted the coastal stretch from Torrevieja to the Strait of Gibraltar as the most vulnerable to future tsunamis.
Lower-risk areas
Northern Spain’s Cantabrian coast faces a lower tsunami risk. Here, waves are unlikely to exceed one meter, with Asturias, Cantabria, and the Basque Country being the most affected regions in the event of a tsunami.
Preparedness and prevention
Given the risks, action plans are already in place in parts of southern Spain. For example, Huelva has implemented a Tsunami Plan to improve preparedness and prevention measures. These protocols aim to minimize the impact of potential tsunamis and increase public awareness of the risks.
While the possibility of a tsunami in Spain remains relatively low compared to other regions, the country’s history and seismic activity suggest it is not immune to such events. Vigilance and preventive measures will be critical in mitigating future threats.