Gaza ceasefire under strain as US diplomat pushes controversial plan

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio held talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Sunday, seeking to bolster a fragile Gaza ceasefire amid ongoing tensions and controversy over the US-backed plan for the region.

Rubio’s visit, his first to the Middle East as Washington’s top diplomat, follows the latest exchange of hostages and prisoners between Hamas and Israel, a delicate process mediated by the United States, Qatar, and Egypt. The ceasefire, which began on January 19, has brought temporary calm after more than 15 months of conflict, but the situation remains precarious.

US plan for Gaza sparks international criticism

At the center of Rubio’s agenda is US President Donald Trump’s contentious proposal to take control of Gaza and relocate its over two million residents. Announced earlier this month during Netanyahu’s visit to Washington, the plan envisions transforming Gaza into a thriving coastal hub, described by Trump as the potential "Riviera of the Middle East." However, the proposal has been widely condemned for its lack of detail and disregard for Palestinian sovereignty.

Netanyahu has embraced the concept, but it has faced rejection from international leaders. Washington, a staunch ally of Israel, remains insistent that Trump’s plan is the only viable option, though it has signaled openness to alternatives from Arab governments.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has underscored the need for a Palestinian state as the foundation for lasting peace in the region. Other regional powers, including Saudi Arabia, have echoed this stance, calling for a two-state solution with Palestine existing alongside Israel.

Hostage-prisoner exchanges test the ceasefire

Rubio’s arrival coincided with the release of three Israeli hostages by Hamas in exchange for 369 Palestinian prisoners, marking the sixth such swap since the ceasefire began. The freed Israeli hostages, including Israeli-American Sagui Dekel-Chen, 36, and Israeli-Russian Sasha Trupanov, 29, returned to emotional reunions with their families. However, their release came after reportedly being paraded before crowds alongside armed Hamas fighters in a last-minute ordeal.

Meanwhile, the released Palestinian prisoners, including some serving life sentences, were greeted by large gatherings in Gaza. Many were seen discarding sweatshirts emblazoned with a Star of David and burning them in bonfires.

This latest exchange brings the total number of hostages freed under the truce to 19, while over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners have been released. Of the 251 individuals taken hostage during Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, 70 remain in Gaza, including 35 whom Israel believes are deceased.

Fragile calm amid escalating tensions

The ceasefire, while holding for now, remains fragile. Last week, Israel threatened to resume fighting unless Hamas released three hostages, a demand that was met just hours before Rubio’s visit. The truce’s first 42-day phase is nearing completion, and discussions on a potential second phase, aimed at securing a more durable peace, are expected to begin in Doha this week.

Diplomatic sources indicate that Egypt is working on an alternative plan centered on training a new security force and appointing local Palestinian leaders to oversee Gaza. Rubio acknowledged the efforts of Arab states but reiterated that Hamas must have no role in Gaza’s future.

Despite the ceasefire, sporadic violence continues. On Sunday, Hamas reported an Israeli air strike near Rafah in southern Gaza, which killed three police officers. Israel claimed it targeted armed individuals in the area. This marks at least the second air strike since the truce began.

Human toll of the conflict

The October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas on Israel, which sparked the war, left 1,211 people dead, mostly civilians, according to Israeli figures. In response, Israel’s military campaign in Gaza has resulted in the deaths of at least 48,264 people, the majority civilians, based on figures from Gaza’s health ministry, which the United Nations considers reliable.

As the humanitarian crisis deepens and the ceasefire hangs by a thread, Rubio’s efforts to promote the controversial US plan face mounting skepticism. His Middle East tour will also include visits to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, where he is expected to gauge support for US-led initiatives and explore potential alternatives to resolve the ongoing crisis.