Household confidence index in 2024: Modest improvement amid persistent pessimism

The Household Confidence Index (HCI) experienced a slight uptick during the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the latest survey by the High Commission for Planning (HCP). It reached 46.5 points, compared to 46.2 points in the previous quarter and 44.3 points a year earlier.

Widespread concerns about living standards

Despite this marginal improvement, pessimism remains pervasive. A staggering 81% of households reported a deterioration in living standards over the past 12 months, with only 4.8% noticing any improvement. The opinion balance—a measure of the gap between positive and negative perceptions—remains deeply negative at -76.2 points.

Looking ahead, 53.8% of households expect living standards to worsen in the next year, while just 7.7% anticipate improvement. This translates to an opinion balance of -46.1 points, a slight recovery from the -49.3 points recorded in the previous quarter.

Rising fears of unemployment

Employment prospects continue to fuel anxiety among households, with 83% predicting an increase in unemployment over the next 12 months. Only 5.5% foresee a decline in joblessness. The opinion balance remains highly negative at -77.2 points, underscoring widespread apprehension about the job market.

Limited appetite for durable goods

Economic uncertainty is curbing household spending on durable goods. A significant 80% of households believe it is not the right time to make such purchases, while only 8.1% consider the timing favorable. The opinion balance has worsened to -71.9 points, down from -69.7 points in the previous quarter.

Financial strain and diminished savings potential

Household finances remain strained. More than half (56.5%) of households report that their income barely covers their expenses, while 41.2% are forced to rely on debt or savings. Only 2.3% manage to save money.

Looking to the future, the outlook remains bleak, with 88.9% of households expecting they will be unable to save in the next 12 months. This leaves the opinion balance at a worrying -77.8 points.

Food inflation heightens concerns

Rising food prices remain a pressing issue for most households. A striking 97.5% acknowledge the impact of inflation on food products, a figure unchanged from the previous quarter. Furthermore, 83.3% anticipate further price increases in the coming year, compounding the atmosphere of economic unease.

Declining public service quality

The HCP survey also highlights growing dissatisfaction with public services:

Education: 57.9% of households believe the quality of educational services declined in 2024, up from 45% in 2023. Healthcare: 61.2% report worsening access to medical care. Environmental protection: Only 47.7% perceive improvements, a drop compared to 2023. Human rights: Positive perceptions of human rights fell to 35.8%, while 19.6% noted a regression. Fragile progress in a gloomy climate

While the Household Confidence Index shows a slight recovery, most indicators remain deeply negative. Concerns over an uncertain future, rising unemployment, and persistent inflation continue to weigh heavily on Moroccan households, setting the stage for a challenging start to 2025.