Israel and Iran Collapse of Global Order as Conflict Escalates

The intensifying confrontation between Israel and Iran has underscored a historic unraveling of the international rules-based system established after World War II. Since the Hamas-led assault on Israel in October 2023, the conflict has widened into an unchecked military campaign across Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and now directly into Iran, marking a dramatic shift in regional and global geopolitics.

Initially, the United States gave unconditional support to Israel’s military response, assuming its operations would adhere to international law. However, twenty months later, Israel has carried out widespread bombing, seized new territories, and ignored international pressure, including arrest warrants from the International Criminal Court (ICC) for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over alleged war crimes in Gaza.

Prominent Israeli officials have made alarming declarations about forced displacement in Gaza and possible regime change in Iran. Netanyahu has even hinted at targeting Iran’s leadership. Analysts warn these developments signal a broader collapse in global norms, especially with a nuclear-armed Israel behaving with impunity.

According to H. A. Hellyer of the Royal United Services Institute, the erosion of accountability has encouraged unchecked violence. “Israel has faced no consequences for repeated violations of international law,” he says, enabling further aggression with tacit backing from major world powers.

The toll has been devastating, particularly in Gaza, where over 55,000 people have died and much of the region has become uninhabitable. Beyond the humanitarian cost, experts like Karim Emile Bitar of Saint-Joseph University warn that the foundations of the postwar liberal international order are collapsing. “The message is clear: power overrides law, and accountability is dead,” Bitar explains.

Israel describes its campaign as heralding a “new Middle East,” a phrase critics associate with destabilizing interventions like the Iraq War. Analysts argue this new era is less about reform and more about raw power dynamics, where law and diplomacy have been sidelined.

Fears are growing across the Middle East not only of Iranian influence, but also of an emboldened Israel. The risk of a regional arms race is mounting, with speculation that Iran may now accelerate efforts to obtain nuclear weapons. Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association suggests Israel's recent strikes could push Tehran out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty altogether.

Supporters of international law warn that Israel’s actions fall under a dangerous precedent of “anticipatory” self-defense, previously invoked in conflicts like the Iraq invasion. Ben Saul, a professor of international law, argues such justifications threaten global stability by permitting nations to act without provocation under the guise of security.

Western leaders have sent mixed messages. While Israel’s attack on Iran drew global condemnation, key figures like French President Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz largely blamed Tehran, framing Israel’s actions as necessary defense. Critics say this double standard further damages the legitimacy of global institutions.

Meanwhile, international courts have taken symbolic steps. The ICC issued arrest warrants, and the International Court of Justice has ruled against Israeli operations in Gaza. Still, without enforcement power, these institutions remain limited, especially as powerful nations like the United States obstruct them. Under Donald Trump’s leadership, the U.S. imposed sanctions on the ICC and defunded several UN agencies.

Brian Brivati of Kingston University says this represents a systemic crisis. “One pillar of the postwar order is attacking another,” he explains. “When superpowers shield allies from accountability and dismantle global institutions, they create openings for rival powers like Russia and China to rewrite the rules.”

Experts warn that if this collapse continues, it could cripple the world’s ability to respond to future crises from war to climate change. Hellyer emphasizes, “International law isn’t just about justice it’s about survival.”