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Macron faces political crossroads as Bayrou’s fall looms
The political landscape in France is on the verge of significant upheaval, with President Emmanuel Macron preparing for the imminent resignation of his embattled Prime Minister François Bayrou. Widely expected to step down on September 8, Bayrou’s departure will leave Macron exposed to mounting opposition pressures, both within Parliament and on the streets.
Macron’s options amid a divided Parliament
Bayrou’s exit marks the second collapse of Macron’s government in recent months, intensifying calls from the left-wing La France Insoumise and the far-right Rassemblement National for Macron’s resignation. These demands are expected to culminate in a nationwide protest on September 10.
The President’s next move is unclear, with several scenarios being debated. Among the possibilities are the dissolution of the National Assembly, the appointment of a left-wing Prime Minister, or even his own resignation—each fraught with challenges and risks.
Dissolution of the National Assembly
Macron has long resisted invoking Article 12 of the Constitution, which allows him to dissolve the National Assembly and call for new elections. He has repeatedly emphasized his preference for political cooperation, noting that the current Parliament reflects the nation’s divisions.
However, Bayrou’s departure has shifted the political calculus. Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin recently suggested that dissolution might not be avoidable, while former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe has warned that it could become “inevitable.” While this move could temporarily divert attention from Macron, it risks reinforcing the current political fragmentation.
Calls for Macron's resignation
Some political figures, including former UMP leader Jean-François Copé, have argued that Macron should resign and allow an early presidential election. Copé has suggested that such a move, framed as an act of political courage, could resonate with French citizens. On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon has reiterated his belief that Macron’s departure is essential to resolving the country’s political and economic challenges.
Macron, however, has dismissed these calls, affirming his commitment to completing his term despite the mounting pressures.
A left-wing Prime Minister?
The prospect of appointing a Prime Minister from the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), which won the most seats in the last legislative elections, is also under consideration. Macron has previously rejected this option, citing the risk of no-confidence votes.
Figures like Lucie Castets, a prominent NFP leader, have been suggested as potential candidates, though their ability to form a stable government remains uncertain. Even less divisive figures, such as Bernard Cazeneuve, face significant hurdles due to opposition from both left- and right-wing factions.
The bloc-central alternative
Macron could opt to maintain his current centrist approach by appointing another Prime Minister from his political base. Names such as Sébastien Lecornu, Gérald Darmanin, or Catherine Vautrin have surfaced as potential successors. However, this approach risks perpetuating the same challenges faced by Bayrou, with Parliament still deeply divided.
A nation at a crossroads
As Macron navigates these turbulent political waters, the stakes are high. With only months left in his presidency, his decisions will shape not only his legacy but also the broader trajectory of French politics. Whether through dissolution, resignation, or a reshuffle, Macron’s next move will be pivotal in determining the country’s path forward.