Poland faces pivotal presidential runoff amid deep divisions

As Poland approaches its second round of presidential elections on June 1, the political landscape is sharply divided. Voters will choose between Rafał Trzaskowski, the center-right mayor of Warsaw backed by the Civic Coalition, and Karol Nawrocki, an independent aligned with the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, which held power from 2015 to 2023.

In the first round on May 18, Trzaskowski led with 31.1% of the vote, followed closely by Nawrocki at 29.5%. Polls show a near-even split ahead of the runoff, with Trzaskowski holding a slight lead. The outcome will determine the successor to outgoing nationalist-conservative President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally often criticized for vetoing reforms aimed at restoring judicial independence.

Trzaskowski and Nawrocki offer sharply contrasting visions. While both candidates adopt strict stances on immigration, including critical rhetoric toward Ukrainian migrants, they differ on Poland’s direction in foreign policy and civil rights. Trzaskowski is seen as pro-European and more liberal, historically supporting LGBTQ rights and easing abortion laws, though he has muted these positions during the campaign. Nawrocki emphasizes nationalism, traditional Catholic values, and a pro-U.S. foreign policy, even opposing Ukraine’s potential EU and NATO membership.

Tensions intensified after allegations emerged against Nawrocki involving real estate dealings, hooliganism, and his past as a security guard, accusations he denies. He has sought to deflect criticism by attacking Trzaskowski’s record as mayor and claiming media bias.

Both candidates mobilized tens of thousands in weekend rallies. Trzaskowski called for “honesty and justice,” while Nawrocki, who received an endorsement from a former U.S. Homeland Security Secretary, laid out a vision prioritizing sovereignty and traditional values.

The stakes are high. A Trzaskowski win could unblock legislative efforts to reform the judiciary and strengthen ties with the EU. A Nawrocki presidency may lead to deeper institutional gridlock and strained relations with Brussels, aligning Poland closer with a Trump-style conservative agenda.

The race remains wide open. Analysts say younger voters and those who abstained in the first round could decide the outcome. While centrist and left-wing parties have endorsed Trzaskowski, many voters remain conflicted—united less by support for him than by opposition to Nawrocki’s polarizing vision.