Moroccan Business Outlook: Over 30% Anticipate Growth in Upcoming Quarter

In a glimpse into the Moroccan market's future, a recent survey conducted by Bank Al-Maghrib, the country's central bank, reveals that more than one-third of business owners (34%) are optimistic about improved market conditions in the next three months. This survey, conducted in November, provides valuable insights into the expectations of various industries, shedding light on their anticipated production and sales performance.

According to the survey, industrialists across sectors, with the exception of the agro-food industry, are optimistic about a surge in production and sales. However, the agro-food sector foresees a decline in production and stagnating sales, casting a shadow over its prospects. A notable finding is that a substantial portion of surveyed businesses (25%) expects their production to stagnate, while nearly a third (30%) predicts a similar fate for their sales.

Despite this cautious optimism, one in five companies remains uncertain about the future growth prospects, hinting at lingering apprehensions within the market. While many businesses are hopeful, they remain wary of potential challenges that lie ahead.

This prevailing optimism can be partly attributed to the positive performance of businesses over the past three months. The survey highlights that approximately 46% of companies reported robust growth in sales, while 35% experienced sales stagnation, and 19% encountered a decline in sales.

In light of the survey results, Bank Al-Maghrib reports that the Capacity Utilization Rate (CUR), an essential metric measuring the economy's productive capacity, has stabilized at 76%. This stability reflects the balance between current production levels and the economy's potential output.

Further analysis by Bank Al-Maghrib reveals that national production has witnessed an overall increase, primarily driven by the "chemical and para-chemical" as well as the "mechanical and metallurgical" sectors. However, other sectors have experienced less significant growth. The textile and leather industries, along with the agro-food sector, have encountered stagnant production, while the electrical and electronics sector has witnessed a decline.

Specifically, in November 2023, the agro-food industry in Morocco faced stagnant production, with a Capacity Utilization Rate (TUC) of 67%, the lowest among all sectors. Sales within the sector also declined in the domestic market, albeit experiencing an increase in foreign shipments. Additionally, orders within the sector have decreased, with a backlog below the usual levels.

Looking ahead to the next three months, business owners in the agro-food sector anticipate a further dip in production and foresee sales reaching a plateau. These projections reflect the challenges and uncertainties that lie ahead for the industry.

As Morocco's business landscape evolves, this survey provides valuable insights into the sentiments and expectations of business owners across various sectors. While some sectors exhibit promising growth, others face hurdles that require careful navigation. With over 30% of Moroccan businesses anticipating growth in the upcoming quarter, the market remains dynamic and poised for interesting developments in the months to come.