Fragile truce: Will the India-Pakistan ceasefire last?

Mukeet Shah had spent days anxiously scrolling through his phone, following every update about the escalating conflict between India and Pakistan. A call from his mother, Tanveera Bano, worsened his anxiety. She pleaded with him to come home, saying, “Why be apart when we can at least die together?” Shah, 23, was deeply moved by her words. Shortly after, news broke that US President Donald Trump had announced a “full and immediate” ceasefire between India and Pakistan, and both countries confirmed it. Relief washed over Shah, and he reassured his mother, “Both countries have agreed to peace. We’ll spend more time together soon.”

However, his relief was short-lived. Within hours, reports surfaced of drone attacks in Srinagar, Indian-administered Kashmir, and other regions, as well as ceasefire violations along the Line of Control (LoC), the disputed border. Despite reassurances from both governments, tensions remained high.

For over three decades, Kashmir has been a flashpoint between India and Pakistan. An insurgency began in 1989 in the region, which both countries claim. While India accuses Pakistan of supporting the rebels, Pakistan maintains that it only provides diplomatic backing to Kashmir’s struggle for self-determination.

In Srinagar, residents like Abbas described the nightmarish conditions. Explosions and blasts were constant, leading many to feel trapped in a psychological war. "The fear isn't just from the blasts but the uncertainty," said Abbas. Despite this, some residents expressed hope that the ceasefire would hold, especially those displaced by the violence.

After several days of military conflict, both countries agreed to a ceasefire, mediated by the US and other nations. However, experts caution that the agreement is fragile. Political analysts, such as Sumantra Bose, warned that the ceasefire was just a temporary solution to a much deeper issue. The conflict’s underlying causes, particularly the Kashmir dispute, remain unresolved.

Despite the challenges, some experts, like Michael Kugelman, emphasized that the ceasefire had prevented a potential war. For now, residents living in the border regions can only hope that this fragile peace lasts.