Morocco's autonomy plan reshapes Sahara dynamics

The growing momentum of Morocco's autonomy plan has dealt Algeria multiple setbacks in recent years, culminating in significant comments from the UN's envoy for Sahara that underscore the decline of Algeria's ambitions in southern Morocco.

After a recent diplomatic blow, where U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed America's support for Morocco's sovereignty over Sahara, Algeria faced another setback during a UN Security Council briefing. Staffan de Mistura, the UN Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy, has notably shifted from previously advocating for the partition of the disputed region to endorsing Morocco’s autonomy plan as the only viable path to resolution.

This shift marks a pivotal moment, as De Mistura's prior suggestion of partition has been replaced with a strong endorsement of Morocco’s proposal, which seeks broad autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty. This transition suggests that the UN may soon request Morocco to clarify its vision for autonomy and establish a realistic timeline for implementation.

The implications of these developments are profound. The UN envoy’s comments validate what many observers have suspected: no feasible resolution exists outside the parameters of Morocco's autonomy plan. Since its introduction to the UN Security Council in 2007, this plan has garnered overwhelming support among the international community as the most pragmatic solution to the long-standing conflict.

Historically, Algeria has resisted acknowledging these shifts, opting instead to pursue its separatist agenda. However, the tide has turned, particularly following the U.S. recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty in December 2020—a move that many analysts believe has fundamentally altered the diplomatic landscape surrounding the Sahara dispute. Spain has also aligned itself with Morocco’s position, stating that the autonomy initiative serves as a credible basis for negotiations, further isolating Algeria.

The persistence of the Sahara dispute has been complicated by Algeria's earlier support for the Polisario Front. Spain's historical complicity has also played a role, as its earlier endorsements of the Polisario contributed to Algeria's influence in the region. As Algeria faces increasing isolation—having strained relationships with neighboring countries and lost significant international support—it struggles to maintain its position against Morocco.

In recent months, Algeria's diplomatic maneuvers have faltered. France's renewed support for Morocco, coupled with the U.S. and Spain's endorsements, has left Algeria in a precarious situation. The UN envoy's announcement that new diplomatic efforts could facilitate a resolution only compounds Algeria's challenges.

The geopolitical landscape has shifted significantly, leading many to suggest that Algeria's longstanding strategies are losing efficacy. With Morocco asserting itself as a regional power, Algeria’s self-proclaimed role as a champion of anti-colonialism is increasingly scrutinized. The convergence of support for Morocco’s autonomy plan from major powers illustrates a fundamental change in the dynamics of the Sahara conflict.

Algeria finds itself at a crossroads. Historical ties and alliances that once provided support are now shifting, and its failure to adapt to these changes could have lasting consequences. The current trajectory suggests that unless Algeria reevaluates its stance and seeks constructive engagement with Morocco, it may find itself increasingly marginalized on the international stage.

In summary, the evolving support for Morocco’s autonomy plan signals a significant shift in the discourse surrounding the Sahara conflict. As Algeria grapples with its diminishing influence, the future of the region hangs in the balance, urging a reevaluation of strategies that have defined its approach for decades.