Oil surges amid rising Middle East tensions and Iran strike fears

Oil prices rose sharply following reports that Israel might be preparing to target Iranian nuclear facilities, sparking renewed geopolitical concerns. Crude benchmarks climbed over 1% after CNN cited US intelligence indicating Israel's intentions, heightening fears of broader conflict in the already unstable Middle East, especially in light of recent Israeli strikes on Gaza.

The rising tension supported gold, traditionally viewed as a safe haven, which surged by nearly 2%. However, most Asian equity markets remained unaffected, continuing a rally sparked by easing US-China trade tensions. Despite the positive momentum in stocks, attention turned to Beijing's strong criticism of Washington’s semiconductor export controls, which it called “bullying.” This came just days after both nations agreed to temporarily reduce reciprocal tariffs, indicating the fragility of the recent diplomatic thaw.

Investors remain cautious over the deadlock in US-Iran nuclear negotiations. While US President Donald Trump expressed optimism about a potential deal, he later warned Tehran to act quickly or face severe consequences. In contrast, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dismissed the likelihood of progress, despite four rounds of talks mediated by Oman since April.

Robert Rennie of Westpac Banking Corp noted that crude prices are likely to retain a geopolitical risk premium as long as nuclear negotiations stall and Israel remains a threat to Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Oil has gained roughly 15% since the start of the month due to subsiding economic worries and easing trade tensions.

Stock markets in Asia, including Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, and others, saw gains, outpacing Tokyo and Singapore. In Europe, however, London’s markets dipped as UK inflation exceeded expectations, strengthening the pound against the dollar. Meanwhile, the dollar weakened against both the euro and yen ahead of the G7 finance ministers’ summit, amid speculation that Trump may be leaning toward a weaker dollar to boost US exports.

Tensions between Washington and Beijing intensified again as China denounced new US restrictions on high-tech chip exports. Beijing warned of retaliatory actions if these controls persist. The restrictions notably target Chinese firms like Huawei and their AI semiconductor products, raising compliance risks for global businesses.

In the US, Federal Reserve officials expressed concern about the economic impact of tariffs, suggesting interest rate cuts are unlikely in the near future. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem highlighted the risk to growth and employment, while Atlanta Fed’s Raphael Bostic noted that Trump’s tax proposals and the Moody’s downgrade could increase financial uncertainty.

Market Snapshot as of 0715 GMT:

• WTI Crude: +1.1% at $63.73 per barrel
• Brent Crude: +1.1% at $66.08 per barrel
• Gold: Up nearly 2%
• Nikkei 225 (Tokyo): -0.6% at 37,298.98
• Hang Seng (Hong Kong): +0.3% at 23,757.72
• Shanghai Composite: +0.2% at 3,387.57
• FTSE 100 (London): +0.1% at 8,776.34
• Dow Jones (New York): -0.3% at 42,677.24
• Euro/USD: $1.1340
• Pound/USD: $1.3454
• USD/Yen: 143.60
• Euro/Pound: 84.27 pence