Poland’s new president threatens Tusk’s pro-European reforms

Karol Nawrocki’s narrow win in Poland’s presidential election marks a critical setback for prime minister Donald Tusk’s reformist government and the country’s alignment with the European Union.

Backed by the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, Nawrocki secured 50.89% of the vote, narrowly defeating liberal Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, who garnered 49.11%. This result extends PiS’s control over the presidency after a decade, complicating Tusk’s efforts to dismantle the nationalist framework built during PiS’s eight years in power.

The Polish presidency holds veto authority over legislation. Nawrocki is expected to block key reforms proposed by Tusk’s centrist coalition, including those restoring judicial independence and advancing civil liberties. The outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, also from PiS, used this power to stifle liberal legislation. Nawrocki is likely to follow the same path.

His campaign leaned heavily on nationalist and anti-European themes. He criticized Trzaskowski’s support for the EU Green Deal, denounced immigration policies tied to Brussels, and opposed abortion liberalization and LGBTQ+ rights. He presented himself as a defender of Polish sovereignty and traditional values, a message that resonated with conservative voters and deepened political polarization.

For Tusk, who returned to office in 2023 promising to reverse populist policies and strengthen EU ties, Nawrocki’s presidency presents a serious institutional challenge. Without a parliamentary majority, Tusk’s government cannot override vetoes, raising the risk of legislative paralysis and eroding public trust in the reform agenda.

Nawrocki’s election also casts doubt on Poland’s future within the European Union. His opposition to closer EU integration clashes directly with Tusk’s ambitions, potentially weakening Warsaw’s influence in Brussels and undermining joint European initiatives.

The close margin of the vote reflects a deeply divided electorate. With Nawrocki preparing to assume office, Poland faces a period of heightened political tension and institutional confrontation. The outcome will shape the country’s direction—at home and in Europe—for years to come.