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Greece’s militarization of Aegean islands tests Türkiye’s patience
Greece’s ambitious “Agenda 2030” plan to establish self-sufficient military units on its Aegean islands has sparked a sharp response from Türkiye, which views the move as a violation of international law and a direct threat to regional stability. Some of these islands lie just 1,575 meters from the Turkish coast, intensifying concerns in Ankara over their militarized status.
Athens claims the initiative is a defensive measure to counter perceived threats from Türkiye, equipping island units to operate independently by generating energy, producing food, and functioning without direct orders from central command. However, Turkish officials and experts argue that the plan undermines existing treaties and escalates tensions in an already fragile region.
Violation of treaties
Türkiye’s criticism centers on Greece’s alleged breach of the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne and the 1947 Paris Peace Treaty, which granted Greece sovereignty over 23 islands under the condition that they remain demilitarized. Retired Turkish Rear Admiral Cihat Yaycı, a key architect of Türkiye’s maritime strategy, called the militarization a “clear violation of international law” and labeled it an “aggressive posture.”
Yaycı also warned that these developments could allow Türkiye to contest Greek sovereignty over the islands under international law. Military installations, anti-drone systems, and pseudo-civilian infrastructure on the islands, he said, signal an attempt to erode their non-military status.
Strategic concerns for Türkiye
Murat Aslan, a security analyst with Türkiye’s Foundation for Political, Economic, and Social Research (SETA), highlighted the risks this militarization poses to Türkiye’s regional security. He noted that Greece’s move could interfere with maritime trade and freedom of navigation in the Aegean, especially if demilitarized zones are transformed into operational military bases.
Aslan also pointed to Greece’s recent acquisition of advanced military equipment from the United States and Germany, often funded through EU and NATO grants. He described Greece’s strategy as one of portraying Türkiye as a threat to secure political and defense support from international allies.
A pattern of provocations
The militarization of the islands fits into what Turkish experts see as a broader pattern of provocations by Athens. Recent Greek military exercises, including amphibious landings, have been interpreted as offensive rehearsals rather than defensive drills.
Despite recent efforts to normalize relations since 2023, disputes over maritime boundaries, energy resources, and Cyprus have kept tensions alive between the two nations. Both sides remain firm on their respective claims, with Türkiye emphasizing legal and diplomatic responses to counter Greek actions.
Türkiye’s potential countermeasures
Türkiye is evaluating its legal options to challenge Greece’s actions. Experts like Yaycı have called for invoking Article 60 of the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, which allows for the suspension or termination of agreements in the event of treaty violations. Such a move would escalate the issue into a formal legal dispute, with significant territorial and security implications.
While Türkiye’s military capabilities far exceed Greece’s, according to Yaycı, the broader concern lies in the shifting political and legal dynamics. Ankara views Greece’s growing defense ties with the United States and France as a potential threat to NATO cohesion and a strategy to isolate Türkiye within the alliance.
Strategic implications for NATO
Both Yaycı and Aslan raised alarms about the potential impact of Greece’s actions on NATO’s eastern flank. Greece’s cooperation with external powers, particularly the U.S., in regions close to Türkiye’s borders—such as Alexandroupoli—could undermine trust within the alliance and shift the balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean.
While Ankara is focused on numerous regional challenges, including the conflicts in Syria and Ukraine, it remains prepared to act decisively if Greece’s militarization strategy continues. Aslan emphasized that Türkiye would respond through legal, diplomatic, and, if necessary, operational means to safeguard its national interests.