Texas floods: how climate change and geography created a deadly disaster

At least 90 people have lost their lives, and over a dozen remain missing after catastrophic flash floods swept through central Texas during the 4th of July weekend. Rescue efforts continue as more rain is forecasted for the already devastated region. Experts point to a combination of climate factors, geography, and remnants of a tropical storm as key contributors to the disaster.

The mechanics behind the floods

The floods were partially caused by the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry, which made landfall in Mexico late last month. According to Aiguo Dai, a professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the University of Albany, SUNY, tropical cyclones leave behind significant amounts of water vapor in the atmosphere. "The moisture stays in the air and travels with the winds," Dai explained. In this instance, water vapor from Barry moved into central Texas, where it merged with warm, moist air to create intense rainfall.

This phenomenon is not rare; Barry is the 20th tropical cyclone or its remnants to generate over 15 inches of rain in Texas since 1913. The region’s geography exacerbated the situation. Texas Hill Country, often called “flash flood alley,” has steep terrain and limited vegetation, making it highly susceptible to rapid water accumulation. “In sloping terrain, water flows quickly into river basins, causing rivers to rise dramatically in hours,” Dai noted, adding that downstream communities often have little time to react.

Climate change’s role in intensifying disasters

Climate change is amplifying the frequency and severity of flash floods. Rising global temperatures increase evaporation, leading to heavier rainfall and stronger storms. Slobodan Simonovic, a professor emeritus of civil and environmental engineering at Western University, explained that warming temperatures directly translate into more frequent and intense precipitation events. “We will face more of these catastrophic events as the planet continues to warm,” he emphasized.

The impact of climate change on tropical storms and hurricanes is particularly concerning. Warmer ocean temperatures fuel stronger storms, which in turn produce more devastating rainfall. Simonovic stressed the need for better planning and adaptation measures, highlighting the human toll of such disasters. "Losing 90 lives in Texas in 2025 is difficult to accept," he said. "We must prepare and take steps to prevent such tragedies from happening more often."

The path forward

As the region grapples with the aftermath of the floods, experts urge policymakers and communities to confront the realities of climate change. Efforts must focus on improving infrastructure, enhancing early warning systems, and developing strategies to mitigate future disasters. Without proactive measures, similar events will become increasingly common, leaving more communities vulnerable to devastating losses.