Trump’s foreign policy sparks Spanish fears over Ceuta and Melilla

Spanish media outlets are abuzz with speculation and concern over the potential implications of Donald Trump’s second presidency for Spain’s North African enclaves, Ceuta and Melilla. Drawing parallels to Trump’s 2020 recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara, Spanish publications warn of a possible seismic shift in international diplomacy that could jeopardize Spain’s hold on the two territories.

In a recent analysis, El Español expressed alarm, stating, “There is concern that Trump could announce a move regarding Ceuta and Melilla similar to his decision on the Sahara.” The publication highlighted that, in Melilla, “expectations are tense” despite the current stability in Spanish-Moroccan relations. Meanwhile, in Ceuta, Trump’s close ties with Morocco’s Alaouite monarchy are reportedly viewed “with distrust and some resentment.”

The fears extend beyond the enclaves. Trump’s unpredictable stances on international diplomacy, including his criticism of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his controversial positions on the Ukraine war, have left Spanish analysts pondering the potential for dramatic geopolitical shifts. As one writer in The Objective starkly put it, “Spain will be alone against Morocco, just as Ukraine feels abandoned by the West.”

Historical tensions and U.S.-Morocco relations stoke anxiety

The anxiety surrounding Ceuta and Melilla is not without precedent. Vozpópuli unearthed historical claims from former Spanish Defense Minister Federico Trillo, who alleged that during the 2002 Perejil Island crisis, the United States encouraged Spain to negotiate territorial concessions to Morocco, including the Chafarinas Islands and Peñón de la Gomera. These revelations, coupled with Morocco’s deepening ties with the U.S., have only fueled Spanish concerns.

El Español noted that U.S.-Morocco relations have reached “unprecedented levels,” underscoring the flourishing partnership since Trump’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara in 2020. King Mohammed VI’s emphasis on the “strategic partnership” between Morocco and the U.S. has further solidified these ties. Meanwhile, Trump’s apparent disdain for Spain’s leadership, including his criticism of the country’s low defense spending and the exclusion of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez from key diplomatic engagements, has exacerbated tensions.

Spanish outlets also pointed to Morocco’s growing military capabilities and its status as a significant purchaser of U.S. weapons. El Español reported that Morocco’s 2025 defense budget has risen to over €12 billion, marking a 7% increase from the previous year. Recent U.S.-Morocco military cooperation, including a February meeting between U.S. Joint Chiefs Chairman General CQ Brown and Moroccan Armed Forces Inspector General Mohammed Berrid, further underscores the strengthening alliance.

Ceuta and Melilla’s vulnerability under the spotlight

A recurring theme in Spanish media coverage is the vulnerability of Ceuta and Melilla due to their exclusion from NATO’s protective framework. Without NATO guarantees, the enclaves are seen as particularly exposed to geopolitical maneuvering. El Español speculated about the possibility of a “new Green March,” referencing Morocco’s 1975 peaceful mobilization to reclaim its southern provinces, but this time with Trump’s backing.

This sense of vulnerability is compounded by Morocco’s growing influence on the global stage. Since Spain’s 2022 endorsement of Morocco’s autonomy plan for the Sahara, Rabat has gained increasing international support. One of Morocco’s key aspirations, according to El Español, is for the U.S. to open a consulate in Dakhla, a move that would further cement recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara.

A shifting balance of power in the Mediterranean

Spanish defense analysts warn that the U.S. now prioritizes its relationship with Morocco over Spain, viewing Rabat as a key regional partner in the Mediterranean. The Center for Higher National Defense Studies (CESEDEN), under Spain’s Ministry of Defense, has reportedly acknowledged this shift, emphasizing the strategic importance of Morocco in U.S. foreign policy.

As Morocco’s influence grows and its ties with the U.S. deepen, Spanish media are left grappling with a sobering reality. The enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla, long seen as symbols of Spain’s territorial integrity, may now sit precariously at the center of shifting geopolitical priorities. Whether these fears materialize remains uncertain, but the specter of a potential diplomatic bombshell looms large over Spain’s political landscape.