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Morocco braces for avocado losses as climate impacts harvest
Moroccan avocado producers are bracing for a significant reduction in harvest volumes for the 2025–2026 season, following successive heatwaves that struck the country in late June and early August.
According to estimates from the Moroccan Avocado Association, reported by specialized outlet Freshplaza, losses could reach up to 50% of the initially forecast crop — nearly 80,000 tons.
Despite this sharp contraction, industry representatives believe prices will only rise moderately. “Naturally, lower volumes will push prices upward, but not excessively. Market dynamics and international competition will prevent extreme surges,” said Abdellah El Yamlahi, president of the association and representative of exporters.
Several factors are expected to cushion the impact: the diversity of production structures, ranging from large-scale farms capable of delaying harvests to smaller growers who need faster turnover; the gradual entry into production of new cultivated areas; and regional variations in climate effects that may allow one area’s gains to offset another’s losses.
El Yamlahi estimated that the national impact might ultimately be limited to around one-third of the expected volumes, keeping production at levels comparable to the previous season. He also noted that the campaign traditionally starts with higher prices in November before stabilizing by the end of the year — a window smaller producers are unlikely to miss.
Overall, while the season is expected to be under pressure, Morocco’s avocado sector shows resilience, with its diverse production base likely to ensure steady supply despite mounting climate challenges.