US Chip Market Dominance at Risk amid China Restrictions

Analysts warn that recent efforts by the Trump administration to curb China's advances in artificial intelligence (AI) may backfire, potentially causing the United States to lose its leadership in the global semiconductor market. The restrictions aim to block American chipmakers from exporting to China, but experts argue that the overall harm to the US could outweigh the intended strategic gains.

Independent analyst Jack Gold suggests that these measures may ultimately damage the country more than the companies themselves. By cutting off access to essential American chips, China is being pushed to accelerate its development of high-performance semiconductors. Once China becomes self-sufficient, it may dominate international markets, making it difficult for the US to reclaim its position.

This strategy, experts say, could significantly weaken America’s lead in microprocessor innovation. Already, companies like Nvidia and AMD are seeing major financial hits Nvidia expects a $5.5 billion charge this quarter, while AMD projects an $800 million revenue shortfall.

Previous efforts under President Joe Biden imposed export controls to preserve the technological edge and prevent Chinese military applications. However, Trump’s proposed total ban on chip exports marks a dramatic escalation. The new restrictions even affect Nvidia’s H20 chips, which were tailored to comply with existing laws for sale in China.

The move comes after Chinese startup DeepSeek managed to build competitive AI models using less advanced hardware, including H20 chips. Experts criticize the approach as shortsighted. Gold notes that instead of penalizing US firms, policies should support them to boost domestic innovation.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has emphasized the importance of the Chinese market, where the company earned $17 billion in 2024 13% of its global revenue. Despite the pressures, Nvidia plans to manufacture AI supercomputer chips in the US, though this effort faces hurdles like a lack of skilled labor and Trump’s tough immigration stance.

Additionally, the US lacks access to vital rare earth materials used in chip production, where China currently holds dominance. Though some deposits exist domestically, mining them requires expensive infrastructure and raises environmental concerns, which could spark public opposition.